The Ramage Team Blog

Ok, this is a good news/bad news post. The good news is for 2008 thus far, we have increased the number of single family homes SOLD each month. January was 149, February was 179, March was 271, and April was 332. Each month was better than the last month. More buyers are realizing what great deals there are out there and deciding to buy.

The bad news is that each of these months we have lost $$$ in the average sale price. Why? Well, it is really quite simple. We have had more and more bank owned foreclosures hitting the market and generally it is their goal to sell within 30 days so, they price at the bottom of the market–or up to 10% below.

Judy Ramage, Broker Associate, ReMax Realty Team

A fellow poster commented not to believe what you are hearing.  I was not quite certain what they meant.  But, I think it had to do with “don’t believe things are improving in the Real Estate Market”.

Back after 911, just after the stock market took a dive, everyone was selling.  On behalf of my son, I bought stocks and just a few years later his account was more than double what I paid.  I can relate the real estate market to this.  When everyone is selling–BUY!  When everyone is buying, SELL!

We currently have over 5200 houses for sale in Cape Coral, and close to 50% are “short sales” or foreclosures.  We have rolled prices back to 2001/2002.  Are times tough, YES!  Many of the Real Estate Agent ranks now work in other businesses, some have given up their licenses completely, and many are now “just part-time”.  It is not a bad thing that our ranks have thinned.  Many agents got into the business with little or no experience.  Would you hire a part-time Doctor?  How about a part-time Attorney?  But, despite the turmoil in the industry, there are real estate bargains out there!  We STILL have great weather, are close to beaches, and are a great place to buy a second home and/or retire.

DON’T sit on the fence until prices start going up.  Oh, by the way…any numbers or statistics I have quoted in this BLOG are factual and I will be happy to provide written evidence to support what I have said.  My goal here is to keep you informed of what is going on.

Finally, to further “rile” the naysayers, PENDING sales have increased for the last two months in the Cape.  That means more BUYER’S are committing to buy… is it a sign things are improving, albeit slowly….YES!

Judy Ramage, ReMax Realty Team, Broker Associate

First, I am sorry I have not gotten to this BLOG as frequently as I said I would.  On February 5, 2008, I fell and broke my ankle simply by stepping out of the shower onto a wet floor.  I now have a plate and 5 screws in my ankle.  At this time I am walking with crutches. 

In February Cape Coral set a two year record for the number of pending sales (over 400).  This means there are more buyers coming into the market and committing to buy.  We still have a 3 year single family home inventory but, if we continue to have months like this, those numbers will improve.  Still the greatest moving price category is the under $200,000 range.  However, we are also seeing “life’ come into the other price ranges as well.

If you have ever thought about living on the water, this may be your time to buy.  225 of our 400 miles of canals have access to the gulf.  You can pick up “fixer uppers” in the $200,000-$300,000 range.  There is only so much waterfront!  Also, did you know we are 30 minutes away from Sanibel Beaches, and Ft Myers Beaches, including LOVERS KEY which is a world famous beach?  My advice is to give this area a look see!

Judy Ramage, ReMax Realty Team, Broker Associate

Just a quick note to share a recent News-Press article.  According to the News-Press, Lee County should start “turning around” in 2009 real estate wise.  This means that 2008 is our “bottom”.  With the low interest rates, the change in the taxes for real estate, and our “low, low, prices” now is the time to buy.  As I have said before we will know when it is the bottom when prices go up!  Don’t miss out!

Judy Ramage, Broker Associate, ReMax Realty Team 

Just a quick note to share the positive change we have seen in the market.  First, we are receiving more calls, our office is reporting a big increase in property showings, and more properties are being put under contract (pending).  It will still be awhile before the market becomes a seller’s market (years) but, at least properties are starting to move.

Judy Ramage, Broker Associate Re/Max Realty Team 

Hello readers.  I just wanted to let you know we are seeing improvements in the real estate market.  First, my fellow collegues and I have noticed in increase in sign and ad calls.  Secondly, we are hearing from our potential buyers who have been hesitant to buy in the recent past.  They are beginning to “resurface”.  Many have used the statement, ”Prices are really low and interest rates have come down.”

What this means is that over time things will start to improve.  By time, I am referring to years not months.  It will still take that long for our market to come into balance.  In the mean time, we are still bumping along near the bottom and this will not change for awhile.  It is a great time to buy, and if you want to sell price accordingly.  Only those properties at the bottom of a price category get action!

Judy Ramage, Broker Associate, Re/Max Realty Team

Cape Coral finished the 2007 year approximately 25% below where we started.  The average sale price dropped about 2% each month for the 12 months….where will it go now?  Unfortunately, we still have a little more to drop in the 2008 year.  “Lee housing woes will last up to four years” according to a January 8, 2008 front page News-Press article.  In this article Lee County was the weakest county for housing sales in Florida according to Orlando-based economist Hank Fishkind–and will continue to be so.

As I have mentioned in previous posts.  We will have a slew of Bank Foreclosures in 2008.  These properties are currently listed as “short sales” and most have unrealistically low list prices because desparate listing agents are hoping to receive “an offer”–which is what it takes to even get the short sale process started.  Many banks are not biting on short sales.  In fact, for 2007 in ALL of Cape Coral only 68 short sales closed.  There are approximately 1400 short sales listed in the MLS in Cape Coral.  Less than 5% of short sales actually closed last year.  The banks would rather foreclose and go after the seller.  Once that happens these same properties will land back in the MLS as a “Bank Foreclosure”. 

Clearly, having a “bank foreclosure” in your neighborhood does not help property values.  Many of them are in rough shape and sell 10% or more below comparable houses. So, yes things will get a little worse, HOWEVER, there are many sellers that NEED to SELL and are selling at what will still be bargain prices in 6 months time.  

  If I suddenly inherited a million (or more) dollars.  I would buy real estate in Cape Coral.  Specifically, Gulf Access WATERFRONT real estate.  It is a wonderful time to buy in the Cape.  As a buyer, if you continue to wait for “rock bottom” you may be overlooking some very good deals right now.  Additionally, you will know when we have hit bottom when the prices start to rise and then you will have “missed out”.

Judy Ramage, Broker Associate, Re/Max Realty Team

Currently 26% (over 1000) of homes listed in the MLS (multiple listing service) are SHORT SALES or FORECLOSURES.   This is a big percentage of our MLS.   What you may not realize is those short sales will be foreclosures next year!  Now, banks and lending institutions do not like to own property and once a property becomes a foreclosure the banks goal is to get rid of it as quickly as possible.  A foreclosure is typically listed at or below (5%-10%) any currently listed property that is similar.  In addition, depending on the banks goals they may take a lowball cash offer just to get the property off their books.

It does not take a genius to see that this short sale and foreclosure problem will continue to effect our market for at least the next year, if not longer.  However, real estate is supposed to be a long term investment.  As far as long term investments go, I’ve certainly done alot better in real estate than anything else I’ve invested in.  In addition, with about a 3 year inventory of homes, 4 years of condos, and 8 years of lots, there are some GREAT deals out there.  Many sellers are willing to go well below their current asking prices and well below the current market “average” for their type of property. 

If you have ever thought of owning here in Cape Coral, now is a wonderful time to buy–as long as you don’t intend to use real estate as a short term investment. 

Judy Ramage, Broker Associate, Re/Max Realty Team

Thank you for your patience.  I purposely waited to write this post until the November sales numbers were ready in the Greater Ft Myers MLS.  Reporting on just Cape Coral single family home sales, we sold 120 single family homes in November 2007 versus 148 in October 2007.  This is a normal trend from October to November.  However, what makes these numbers telling is October 2006 there were 269 SF (single family) homes sold and 221 for November. 

Clearly, we are still seeing significant decreases from one year to the next and as a result the amount of inventory sitting on the market is creeping up…we are close to 3.5 years of SF houses on the market in Cape Coral.  These trends are worse in the condo market (4+ years) and the vacant lot markets (8+ years).  We are not quite yet at the bottom.

On a brighter note for the last three months the average sale price (SP) from say November versus October has increased.  This could indicate we are getting other buyers interested other than first time and low end buyers.  Perhaps some of the buyers are realizing we are now a “very good” value.

Judy Ramage, Broker Associate, Re/Max Realty Team

We currently have 5167 homes for sale in Cape Coral.  This is a small increase from where we had been trending.  However, we have also had more buyer interest (more calls off ads, more sign calls, more calls to our office, etc). 

We will probably not have a significant change in our inventory for many months because even though buyer interest has increased there are ”sellers” that have been waiting for “season” to come before they put their homes on the market.  Therefore, the spike in buyer interest is going to be followed by a increase in home inventory starting mid January.  

In addition, lending rules have become tighter for those buyers with credit scores below 680.  This will mean fewer buyers will qualify for loans.  The bottom line here is that Cape Coral will bumble along with a high housing inventory for many months.